I am doing something this year that I have not done in several years.
I developed a simple but accurate system of rating the NFL teams based solely on game outcomes. It generally takes to week 3 for the true nature to come through.
I say accurate because my "spread" is usually within 1-2 points of what the odds people say and when I pick straight up based on this system, I am correct about 75% of the time.
If the board wishes, I can post weekly updates.